OpenAI ChatGPT’s Search Marketing Share

Is OpenAI, its ChatGPT service, taking market share from Google? Well, maybe. Rand Fishkin of Sparktoro posted his assumptions based on a mix of data from SimilarWeb and Datos that says ChatGPT’s current market share is 4.33% – that is from October 2024 data.

So ChatGPT is 4.33%, while Google is 83.54%, then YouTube 6.79%, Bing at 1.97% and Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Reddit, Pinterest, and Perplexity all combined is 3.37%.

Rand said on X, if we assume (1) every LLM prompt is a “search”, (2) desktop + mobile web traffic, excluding apps, is close enough and mixing data from multiple panels is kosher, then here is the chart he shared:

And then at BrightonSEO, Marcus Tober from Semrush shared a slide that assumes ChatGPT has continued growth of 13% MoM growth rate. It would then catch up to Google in four years.

I am a bit skeptical on this but hey, I would **** to be wrong.

Here are those posts:

Here’s a projection of what this looks like over the next 4 years pic.twitter.com/f3eeYhk2SQ

— John Dietrich 🚀 (@John_Dietrich1) November 20, 2024

Here is more data from Marcus:

Do you think this is possible?

Forum discussion at X.